Opening Day Reactions

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Programming Note: In the interest of transparency, it’s worth admitting to you that I’ve fully embraced the notion that I’m not interested in keeping a regular blogging schedule, and I am far more consistently interested in reacting and interacting via Twitter. There are several excellent options for regular updates on the Pirates and their minor league affiliates in the blogroll to your right. If you don’t already, please follow some if not all of them. I will continue to post updates here when the spirit moves me, but if you’re seeking regular updates and reactions in blog format, follow one or more of those listed to your right.

I was not able to attend last year’s home opener (though I did attend a game during the opening series at Wrigley Field), so making the trip to PNC Park for this year’s Opening Day festivities was a good way to start the year. My last Opening Day with the Pirates was two years ago, when Garrett Jones, et al. launched an assault on Vicente Padilla and the rest of the Dodgers en route to an 11-5 victory.

Yesterday’s game was not nearly as pleasant for Pirates fans, as Roy Halladay did Roy Halladay things, pounding the strike zone and inducing weak contact (when they were fortunate enough to actually make contact). It was my first time seeing Halladay in person, and he did not disappoint. You can definitely see how Charlie Morton has taken as much of Halladay’s throwing motion as he could; watching Hallady warm up was eerily similar to all the innings I’ve watched Morton toss around the #ElectricStuff.

My general reaction to the game is that the offense was stymied by a future Hall of Famer, but I didn’t feel like their plate appearances were all that bad. Bedard was lucky on a couple balls, but he mostly pitched very well, especially with his curveball. I was also impressed with Juan Cruz’s inning–he was the only pitcher to hit 93-94 before Papelbon. Both the outfield defense and infield defense looked good; Pedro was slow to get a 5-4-3 DP started, but Walker made a nice turn on a throw to his right to get the runner at first. Overall, I was disappointed they lost, but I tipped my cap to Halladay. He was the difference in the game.

But plenty of people have reacted to the game already, and that’s not why I’m here. What prompted me to share some thoughts (aside from the fact that I have the day off work), was the guy sitting three seats down from me. We all know this guy in one form or another: he yells at his own team and never credits the opposition; he’s apoplectic when a difficult play doesn’t get made; he sits angrily tapping his foot like he’s trying to run a sewing machine at 15,000 RPM, knuckles clenched white. We’ve all seen this guy, or sat in front of, or behind him at a game at some point in our lives. Heck, you may even be that guy.

I just don’t understand him. I described to my companion the relationship he has with the Pirates is like an abusive partner. He hates the Pirates–I mean, he really HATES them–but he was wearing Pirates merchandise, and bought tickets for Opening Day. I’d bet good money that he watches at least 100 games a year; he just can’t walk away. His constant yelling and complaining made me angry, but I also felt bad for him. Not because I felt like he didn’t know what he was talking about (though he didn’t), and not because there were kids sitting around us that didn’t need to hear him (though there were), but because a sports team that he clearly hates is probably having a very negative effect on his quality of life.

There’s a point at which you have to decide that you just can’t continue to be that upset over whether or not Jose Tabata can make a running catch on a tailing line drive and then throw a runner out at the plate, or that Neil Walker can run down a blooper to right, pick up the ball, turn in the opposite direction, and get enough on the throw to get the runner going from first to second. Both of those plays would’ve been very good to excellent had they been made, but they weren’t, and that’s ok. It’s not worth pounding your leg six times and screaming that those were plays any major leaguer HAS to make.

I know most people bristle when it seems like someone is trying to tell you how to run your life, but in the immortal words of Jeremy Piven in PCU, “Don’t be that guy.” Be a reasonable and sometimes passionate human being; that’s fine. Drop an “OH, COME ON!” when someone blows an easy play; that’s no problem. But if you happen to find yourself at the ballpark, perhaps at PNC Park on Opening Day, take a minute to consider your environment before you launch into a rant about how Pedro Alvarez has no power and Andrew McCutchen can’t even make contact.

And if you do find yourself inspired to heretofore unseen fits of rage because of a sacrifice fly, take a minute to consider why you’re at the game in the first place. It’s supposed to be fun.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Oh, What a Night!

I BELIEVE IN NEAL HUNTINGTON.

This was a great night for the franchise. Approximately $17 million was spent by the Pirates in the 2011 draft, shattering even the crazy 2008, 2009 and 2010 numbers. Bringing Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell into the fold, even though there was little doubt that Cole would sign, has to be considered a coup for Team Neal. Well done, gentlemen.

We still have to defend the Pirates’ front office from the “they’re so cheap!” attacks, but nights like this provide a whole lot more ammunition. No team in baseball has committed more money to the development of its farm system since Huntington and Frank Coonelly took over under Bob Nutting‘s leadership, and they deserve a lot of credit for that.

What more can be said?

The Pirates have played pretty terribly over the last three weeks, probably as bad as they did at pretty much any point last year that wasn’t the 20-0 loss at home to the Brewers. There’s also little help from the schedule on the horizon, with the Cardinals coming to town tonight followed by the Reds over the weekend and four more games with the most-hated Brewers to finish the homestand at the beginning of next week.

These are dark days, to be sure. Hopefully we get some good news late tonight that both Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell have decided to sign with the Pirates, but I’m not holding my breath on Bell. It should be an interesting evening at least.

Eric Seidman has a nice (read: depressing) post over at FanGraphs that talks about the precipitous fall the Buccos have managed to execute over the last few weeks (going from 1st place to 13 games out in 20 days, a truly remarkable stretch of futility). He also talks about their work at the trade deadline, and how it was the right (or at least not the wrong) move for the future of the franchise.  To wit:

Neal Huntington found himself in a precarious position. He had to balance proving to the fans that he wouldn’t squander a potential winner against not giving up too much in a season that might still end up a disappointment even after making significant trades. The 10-game stretch against playoff contenders might have been perceived to be unfortunate, since it essentially took the Pirates out of the postseason picture, but it was really a blessing in disguise. Mortgaging the farm — which took a long time to build up to respectable levels — for a non-superstar wouldn’t have been prudent for an organization that finally seems to have figured things out.

The Pirates aren’t going to make the playoffs this year, and the team might finish below .500 for a 19th straight season, but the organization succeeded in not overpaying for unnecessary players. Fans should be happy that their general manager didn’t mistake unsustainable success for serious contention and deplete the farm system the way Bill Bavasi did with the Mariners a few seasons ago.

So, I guess we have that to feel good about. I think I’m not alone when I say that it’s not nearly enough to make me feel better right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true.

J-Mac vs. Jake Westbrook tonight at 7:05pm on the North Shore. Let’s Go Bucs.

Dropping the Anchor(s)

Based on my informal survey of Pirates’ fans, no two position players have been as frustrating for the fan base this year as Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay. I will confess that when both of these players were signed, I was fine with each of the deals, despite the fact that both are on the downside of their respective careers.

I assumed that Diaz would be used less frequently than Clint Hurdle likes to send him out there, and he does have a good track record against LHPs. Aside from a bad 2007, Overbay has been a league-average player, and I thought the switch to the NL would be good for him.  Obviously, these deals have not worked out well so far, but that’s somewhat common with free agent signings, and one of the reasons I get nervous when people complain about the Pirates needing to sign more people via free agency.

So what went wrong with Diaz and Overbay? At the moment, both are performing well below their contract value, with Diaz at 0.1 fWAR (between $300k and $400k), and Overbay at -0.8 fWAR (roughly -$3.5 million). With a strong August and September, Diaz could reach the $2.125 million in value that the Pirates are spending on him, but Overbay will need to put up somewhere around 2.5 fWAR in the last 63 games to justify the $5 million he’s earning this year.

Let’s start with Diaz. What has changed since he left Atlanta? For starters, he’s swinging at a few more pitches out of the zone, but the real problem is that he’s making too much contact:

Year	O-swing%	Swing%	O-contact%	Contact%
2006	37.6	56.7	61.6	77.8
2007	36.0	56.4	61.4	76.4
2008	40.4	58.3	49.5	68.2
2009	29.5	51.6	53.4	72.2
2010	38.3	55.8	68.8	80.0
2011	40.2	57.0	74.4	84.6
Career	36.1	55.7	60.8	76.4

Essentially, Diaz is swinging at slightly more pitches out of the zone, but he’s making contact with a lot more of them, which is leading to more ground balls (52.4%, career 48.3%) and less fly balls (26.5%, career 29.3%), for a GB/FB ratio of 1.97 (career 1.65). He’s hitting more line drives in June (23.8%) and July (29%), but he hasn’t had a GB% below 50% for any month of the year.

Perhaps there’s a change he’s made to his approach, or perhaps he’s not seeing the ball as well since coming to Pittsburgh, but Diaz needs to take more pitches out of the zone and stop putting the ball in play as much. Despite what you may think, he’s actually swinging and missing at less pitches (8.5%) than his career average (12.9%), and his strikeout rate (16.2%) is better than his career rate (18.1%) as well.

I don’t think it totally explains the problem, but he needs to take more pitches and hope for something better to square up and drive. The lack of a home run so far this year is mostly bad luck, but the decline in SLG% (.347, career. 445) can be at least in part attributed to his bad pitch selection (as well as his age, etc.). Stop swinging so much, Matt. You’ll make more friends in Pittsburgh.

Whither (wither?) Lyle Overbay? The left-handed first baseman hadn’t hit less than 30 doubles since his debut season in 2003, and despite his lack of HR power, this seemed like an affordable, common sense acquisition for Team Neal. You probably won’t be surprised to learn that his problems are not dissimilar to those of Matt Diaz:

Year	O-swing%	Swing%	O-contact%	Contact%
2006	21.0	44.5	51.8	82.0
2007	19.0	41.9	48.4	82.0
2008	18.9	41.6	48.7	79.8
2009	15.4	37.9	47.8	79.7
2010	24.8	42.7	55.8	76.7
2011	29.1	46.4	65.8	80.6
Career	19.7	43.0	51.0	79.2

Overbay has seen a HUGE jump in the percentage of pitches at which he swings and the percentage with which he makes contact outside of the zone over the last two years, and his decrease in selectivity has led to a corresponding decrease in the percentage of pitches he sees inside the zone (43.7% in 2011, 43.0% in 2010) relative to his career (49.2%).

In response to this change, Overbay has made the wrong adjustment by swinging at more pitches instead of less. The historically patient hitter (.354 career OBP) posted a career low in 2010 (.329) and has again so far in 2011 (.302). He’s also hit fewer line drives in 2010 (16.0%) and 2011 (18.5%) than the rest of his career (21.5%).

Pitchers are throwing Overbay more breaking balls, as his FB% the last two years (58.8% in 2010, 58.9% in 2011) has been under 60%  for the first time in his career. He’s also shown a negative run value (-4.2) on fastballs this year, which is the first time in his career he’s posted a negative number against FBs.

Like Diaz, it could be a change to his approach, or the fact that he’s getting older and just isn’t seeing the ball as well in his Age 34 season. It’s one thing for me to sit here and say “take more pitches!” when those breaking balls sure look a whole lot like fastballs and you as a batter have to make a split-second decision whether or not to swing.

The problem for Neal Huntington and Clint Hurdle is that I don’t see the problems with Diaz and Overbay resolving themselves anytime soon. Neither has shown a huge first half/second half performance split in their careers, and I don’t imagine the August heat makes it easier to pick up whether or not a pitch is headed outside of the zone. Obviously, it’s baseball, and both these guys could rediscover their career norms in the second half, but I don’t think it’s likely.

With the trade deadline approaching, fans are imploring the front office to acquire an “impact bat,” preferably at first base or a corner outfield position. Given his contract status, I would not expect Diaz to be released if an RF/LF player (Ryan Ludwick, for example) were to be acquired, but acquiring a first baseman like Carlos Pena or Jason Giambi would certainly mean the end of Lyle Overbay’s tenure as a Pirate. Considering Pena and Giambi have shown they’re still capable of hitting for power (though Giambi’s been pretty lucky), if the price is right, it’s time to make a move. Both Diaz and Overbay need to see significantly less playing time (by either being traded or benched) for the Pirates’ offense to be successful in the second half of the season.

Minor Updates

There’s been some slight redecorating going on this evening.  You’ll notice on the right-hand side that the “Archives” section is much longer than it used to be. I recently imported all my old posts over from Blogger, so they have been added to the list.

If you’d like to see my thoughts on all the huge trades that took place in 2008/2009, or how many times I’ve managed to misspell Nate McLouth’s name, feel free to take a look back.

A New Day, Part Two

If you missed Tuesday’s post about the pitching staff, I suggest you review that first before proceeding. Stats are for the first 90 games, with the exception of right field (sorry!).

As I mentioned the other day, the surprising success of the 2011 Pirates has been driven by a new-found ability to prevent runs (and a significant amount of luck for some of the starting pitchers). We explored the performance of the pitching staff already, but that’s only part of the equation. After finishing 2010 as the worst team in the NL in Defensive Efficiency Rating (0.689), and both UZR (-63.6) and UZR/150 (-8.5), the 2011 Pirates have become one of the better defensive teams in the league, with a DER of 0.716 (4th), a UZR of 5.3 (3rd) and a UZR/150 of 1.1 (3rd).

That success has been driven in large part by the performance of both Ronny Cedeno and the improved Andrew McCutchen at key defensive positions. Below I’ll take a look at each position, using 100 defensive innings as the cutoff for each player, so don’t expect to see 50 words on the defensive prowess of Wyatt Toregas. I’ll put the inning count next to each player’s name so you know how much evidence I’m considering.

**It’s worth noting that defensive statistics can be wildly inconsistent from year to year, and multiple years should be considered when evaluating a player’s performance. I’ll talk about 2011 specifically, but I’ll do my best to incorporate historical data to give you a more robust perspective.**

Pitcher

I will only talk about the starting rotation here, since they’re the ones who have seen the field the most (and only Maholm and Correia met the 100 inning cutoff). There’s no great way to evaluate pitcher defense, but here’s some data:

Name	Innings	SB	PO	A	E	WP
Paul Maholm	121.2	5	5	19	1	1
Kevin Correia	116.2	4	8	16	0	0
Jeff Karstens	98.2	8	11	9	2	0
James McDonald	97.2	11	5	9	1	1
Charlie Morton	97.0	9	5	13	0	0

I don’t think there’s anything here to be particularly concerned about. RHPs are going to be easier to steal bases against, but neither McDonald, Morton, Karstens, nor Correia are close to the league’s worst in SB allowed. I don’t think any of them fields the position particularly well, but none of them are terrible either. I’d say the performance here has been roughly league average.

Catcher

Catcher defense is another analytically nebulous area. Consider the following 2011 stats at your own peril:

Name	Innings	SB	CS	CS%	PB
Chris Snyder	265.2	17	6	26.09%	5
Ryan Doumit	206.1	17	5	22.73%	1
Michael McKenry	186.2	10	3	23.08%	0

After being among the worst in the NL for allowing stolen bases in 2009 and 2010, the Pirates have been roughly league average in 2011. They’re sixth worst in CS, but fifth best in SB allowed. (I’m using FanGraphs’ numbers here. If you look at MLB official stats, they’re slightly different.) I’m probably unduly hard on Ryan Doumit, and Chris Snyder probably isn’t as good defensively as it was advertised when he was acquired, but it seems Michael McKenry has done an OK job filling in for both, and he’s a decent option for a backup catcher going forward.

Overall, the catching might not be a benefit to the defense, but it hasn’t been a hindrance either.

First Base

Oh, Lyle. In the NL, only Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman gives Lyle Overbay a run for being the worst defensive first baseman. Some of this may be due to different defensive positioning, but all the advanced numbers say he’s been terrible this year:

Year	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
2011	702.1	106	85	0.802	8	-6.4	13.5	-13
2010	1320.2	173	138	0.798	40	0.1	0.1	+12
2009	1055.1	164	137	0.835	34	1.9	2.0	+10

Plus/Minus says that Overbay has been -13 on ground balls and -13 to his right side, after five straight years with of performance between +1 and +7 to that same side. I’ve said on Twitter that I think the Pirates play Neil Walker closer to second base than most teams (more on that next), so this might be affecting how the metrics see Overbay. I’m somewhat inclined to say that his 2011 performance is an outlier, or that it’s due to some infield positioning that may not be accounted for in UZR or +/-.

I think we’ve all felt at times that Overbay’s defense has looked bad. The numbers say that’s the right way to feel. It’s possible that he’s positioned differently than in years past (which is affecting the numbers) AND that he’s playing poorly. I think that it’s most likely a combination of both factors.

Given his obvious offensive struggles and his less obvious defensive struggles, it’s not hard to see why the Pirates’ are seeking an upgrade at first base as we approach the trade deadline. Overbay is costing the team a significant amount of runs with both his bat and his glove.

Second Base

As you may have already heard, the advanced metrics did not like Neil Walker’s defense in 2010, but most of us were comfortable giving him a long leash since he was learning a new position. What’s comforting is that this year he seems to be showing some significant improvement. To wit:

Year	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
2011	765.2	232	184	0.793	35	-5.2	-7.0	-2
2010	894.2	243	182	0.749	11	-10.8	-17.1	-14

As you can see, Walker’s UZR and +/- have improved significantly over last year’s numbers, and his 35 out of zone plays are the best in the NL among qualified second basemen. There’s also some evidence to support my speculation that Walker plays closer to the bag, as he has gone from -1 in 2010 to +14 in 2011 on plays to his right, which might also explain his high number of OOZ plays despite his pedestrian play in the zone (.793 RZR).

Obviously, Walker is a work in progress, and there is roughly zero percent chance that he will be moved from second base any time soon as long as he continues to hit around league average or better. I think you could make a case that the numbers don’t show the whole picture here, but the sensible conclusion is probably that he’s still on the learning curve of a new position, and until we have further evidence of his improvement he’s still a well below average defender.

Shortstop

If you like UZR, and chances are that if you’re reading this you do, then you probably already know that in terms of UZR Ronny Cedeno is the third best defensive shortstop in the National League. For all his mental lapses and seeming indifference, the numbers say Cedeno is having a career year in the field:

Year	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
2011	635.1	216	191	0.884	38	4.2	9.7	+14
2010	1149.0	372	292	0.785	48	-3.6	-4.0	-18
2009	711.2	243	195	0.803	27	0.5	0.7	-5

Not to throw cold water on his performance this year, but if we’re going to consider that Overbay’s bad 2011 is an outlier, we have to do the same for Cedeno’s excellent 2011, as this kind of glove work at shortstop is unprecedented for him. Dewan’s +/- had him as a terrible SS last year, and not so good the year before. As I mentioned above, defensive performance can fluctuate quite a bit in different seasons, so we don’t necessarily have to expect a regression before the end of the season.

Cedeno’s work in the field has helped him sustain value despite his struggles at the plate, as his 1.2 WAR puts him in a cluster of players (with Walker, Garrett Jones, and Jose Tabata) behind Andrew McCutchen. Anything good he does with the bat is a bonus as long as he can continue to make outs in the field at his present level. There’s no question that Cedeno’s defense has been critical to the improvement of the 2011 Pirates, and they need him to continue fielding at a high level if they want to remain in the NL Central race.

Third Base

The Pirates have been without Pedro Alvarez in the lineup for a while, even when he wasn’t on the DL. (ZING!) Though there have never been questions about Pedro’s arm, his mobility will continue to be a concern, as the numbers probably show. Unless he shows better range, UZR and +/- will continue to consider him a below average fielder.

A cast of characters including Brandon Wood, Josh Harrison, and Chase d’Arnaud have filled in well (defensively) while Pedro has been on the mend:

Player	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
Pedro Alvarez	296.0	88	63	0.716	12	-2.3	-7.0	-5
Brandon Wood	242.0	57	45	0.790	6	2.2	14.4	+1
Josh Harrison	149.0	43	33	0.767	7	2.0	20.0

All of these numbers come with a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE caveat, but I thought they pretty much agreed with my eye test. I think Wood has been the best of the replacements, and both metrics say he’s been able to offset some of the loss of Alvarez with his defense at third, if not with his bat.

It’s uncertain what will happen when Alvarez shows that he is ready to be back in the majors, but I doubt that the Pirates will acquire a 3B this year (as some have advocated) and move Pedro to 1B when he returns. For now, the Wood/Harrison/d’Arnaud trio will at least keep a few more runs off the board than Pedro would otherwise have done.

Left Field

As we all know, left field at PNC Park is much more difficult to defend than it is in most other MLB stadiums. The demands of PNC Park’s left field have led Team Neal to focus on filling that position with fast, capable defenders at the expense of a power bat like most other teams would use. Thanks to this year’s low run environment, Jose Tabata‘s .705 OPS (.321 wOBA) hasn’t hurt his overall value, which is driven by his above-average defense.

Player	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
Jose Tabata 2011	570.0	103	91	0.884	38	0.6	1.4	+9
Jose Tabata 2010	771.0	153	131	0.856	58	6.5	9.6	+12
Alex Presley	114.0	12	12	1.000	7	1.0	35.2

Tabata was excellent in the field in 2010, and both UZR and +/- agree that he has continued to be above average this year. His speed is obviously his greatest asset, and neither Tabata nor Alex Presley have a particularly strong arm, but both can cover the wide expanse that is left field at PNC Park.

Presley’s numbers are too few to be taken as an indication of pretty much anything, but I included them anyway. Given what we know about Presley’s profile, he should be able to cover LF defensively (and probably offensively) just fine until Tabata returns from the DL, at which time it’s possible he moves to RF. Regardless, left field is not a place where the Pirates should be looking to add a player, particularly for defensive reasons.

Center Field

Note: Apparently UZR feels that Cutch had a terrible series in Houston, as he dropped to 4.7 UZR and 7.4 UZR/150 in this week’s update.

During his first two seasons in the majors, it was never a question whether Andrew McCutchen had the speed necessary to cover center field, but his jumps on line drives and his routes to fly balls were inconsistent, and it seemed that his positioning wasn’t doing him any favors either. Both UZR and +/- considered McCutchen a well below average fielder in 2009 and 2010, which seemed counter-intuitive. This year, however, McCutchen has emerged as one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, at a premium defensive position.

Year	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
2011	768.1	195	179	0.918	62	8.3	14.4	+7
2010	1290.1	332	295	0.889	78	-13.7	-12.9	-21
2009	952.2	216	191	0.884	72	-1.3	-1.8	-17

In the FanGraphs post about McCutchen that I linked to on Tuesday, they mentioned that the improvement in Cutch’s defense is attributable in part to being positioned deeper in center. I think there’s probably a decent case for that reasoning, and the Pirates have also made attempts at that famous “no triples” defense which they seem to have since forgotten. During his rise through the system, there was no question that Cutch has the tools to be an elite defender, but it seems this year, whether because of better positioning, better jumps, better reads, or a combination of all three, the numbers are finally starting to align with his tools.

McCutchen’s defense in center and the outfield defense overall are two important reasons why the Pirates have been able to keep many more runs off the board in 2011.

Right Field

The Pirates have used a platoon in right field this year, to mixed offensive and defensive results. Garrett Jones has seen the majority of the playing time, but Matt Diaz gets regular innings in right, and we’ve seen Xavier Paul enter more than a few games as a defensive replacement in addition to the occasional start against an RHP. Depending on what the Pirates decide to do with Alex Presley, there will probably be significant changes in right field once Jose Tabata comes off the DL.

Here are Jones’ numbers:

Player	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
Garrett Jones 2011	452.0	88	79	0.898	28	3.1	8.6	+2
Garrett Jones 2010	397.2	77	67	0.870	31	-0.1	0.4	+3
Garrett Jones 2009	343.1	59	53	0.898	23	-0.1	-0.2	+5

Jones has been a capable outfield defender since his arrival in Pittsburgh, and +/- in particular sees him as a fairly consistent player. His UZR is a little more erratic, but I think we can conclude that he’s roughly average to slightly above-average. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.  Essentially, despite his occasional adventures with his routes, Jones doesn’t take anything off the table.

What about Matt Diaz? (2010 are LF numbers instead of RF, since he primarily played LF with Atlanta last year.)

Player	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
Matt Diaz 2011	227.0	32	28	0.875	8	-1.5	-9.9	-5
Matt Diaz 2010	448.0	78	69	0.885	24	-0.4	-1.5	+11
Matt Diaz 2009	540.2	77	68	0.883	21	-2.8	-8.8	-5

UZR clearly thinks Diaz has been a below-average defender for the last few years, and I’m keen to consider that +11 in left last year an outlier. I think these numbers are consistent with our general impression of Matt Diaz’s defense, which is that it’s not very good. He’s useful as a bench player, and I thought he could be good as the right-handed half of a platoon, but I’m less interested in that at this point. Going forward, Alex Presley and Steve Pearce shouldn’t be losing playing time against LHPs so Matt Diaz can see the field.

Lastly, Xavier Paul has been used in both right and left field, but we’ll consider his RF numbers since that’s where the Pirates have used him the most.

Player	Innings	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150	Plus/Minus
Xavier Paul 2011	152.1	32	30	0.938	6	1.0	7.3	+1
Xavier Paul 2010	101.0	17	15	0.882	5	0.3	11.6	+2

Obviously, take these with a grain of salt. Paul doesn’t have enough MLB experience to properly assess his performance, but the numbers say he’s been a little above average. So, he’s probably being used in his best role, which is a PH against left-handed pitching and a defensive replacement. Paul is perhaps going to find himself getting DFA when Jose Tabata returns, so he may not be relevant much longer.

Conclusion

As I mentioned at the outset, the Pirates defensive success has been driven by strong performances at shortstop and in center field. Also, Neal Huntington has done a good job of acquiring secondary players who can play defense, as Brandon Wood, Alex Presley, and Xavier Paul have done generally good work when asked to fill in for injured starters.

If Tabata returns and Presley is given significant time in RF, that could mean even more runs saved in the outfield during the last couple months of the season. The same is true on the infield if Lyle Overbay is replaced by a Jones/Pearce platoon or a better defensive player acquired via trade. The return of Pedro Alvarez will cost a few more runs at third base, but hopefully that can be mitigated by improvements elsewhere.

Overall, the numbers say that the Pirates defense has been much improved, and it has helped drive the Pirates’ 2011 success in concert with the excellent work from the pitching staff. Run prevention is important, and it’s good to see the Pirates move forward after a dismal defensive effort in 2010.

A New Day, Part One

Before we begin, Chris Cwik at FanGraphs has a post up today about the emergence of the improved Andrew McCutchen. There’s nothing too surprising there (he’s walking more, hitting more fly balls, his fielding has taken a big step forward, and he’s destroying fastballs and hitting sliders better), but it’s still worth reading. If nothing else, it will get your heart in the right place before the All-Star Game this evening.

Let’s just all admit that none of us really saw this coming. I think we expected a noticeable improvement from last year’s 57-105 performance, but getting the first winning record before the All-Star break since 1992 was not something I would have put on the table for this team, particularly if you told me that Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Chris Snyder would miss significant time, that Neil Walker would look totally lost at times against LHPs, and that Lyle Overbay would both be bad with the glove and produce just slightly better offensive numbers than 2006 Jeromy Burnitz.

The truth is that we’ve seen some memorable stuff so far this year in hitting, pitching, and defense, but the success of the 2011 Pirates has been driven by run prevention, beginning with the pitching staff. The turnaround from last year, when the Pirates allowed 489 runs through their first 90 games, has been nothing short of remarkable, and both Neal Huntington and Ray Searage deserve a lot of credit. I’ll even throw Clint Hurdle in there too, since at several times he’s applied a quick hook when it’s needed, which is not something we’ve seen from recent Pirates managers.

I’ll be taking a look at both the pitching and defense this week, but today let’s focus on the pitching staff.

Starting Rotation

The feel good attitude about the Pirates pitching staff has been driven by the turnaround of Charlie Morton, who has drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay and whose repertoire of #ElectricStuff has become an internet sensation. Paul Maholm has turned around his dismal finish in 2010 to deliver a fine 2011 campaign where he’s been very good against lefties and effective against righties despite terrible run support. Kevin Correia has returned to 2009 form, and though he’s benefited from excellent offense in his starts (because he’s a winner), he’s also pitched very well at times. James McDonald has performed admirably since his rough April, which was understandable considering he missed Spring Training, and Jeff Karstens has been tiptoeing through the raindrops all season while filling in for Ross Ohlendorf.

Here’s a look at what the starting rotation has done so far:

	Games	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	FIP	xFIP	R/G
April	27	5.35	3.61	1.39	4.51	4.31	3.30
May	26	6.10	2.43	1.24	3.65	3.55	2.08
June	27	4.63	3.05	1.36	4.42	4.54	2.78
July	10	6.67	2.43	1.25	3.63	3.46	2.50
Overall	90	5.51	2.96	1.32	4.13	4.06	2.70

The starting rotation’s ERA is 3.62 with a .281 BABIP, so they’ve had some luck on balls in play, particularly in Karstens’ case, though he’s been a little unlucky with HR (3.82 xFIP vs. 4.66 FIP, 14.45% HR/FB vs. 10.1% career HR/FB). This is not to say that the members of the rotation haven’t pitched well, because they certainly have. I hate the term “quality start,” but it’s impressive that the Pirates are averaging slightly better than a “quality start” when they take the hill.

As Tim over at Pirate Prospects and others have noted, particularly Karstens and Maholm are due for regression, but with the adjustment that happened to Morton in June, he may be right around his true talent level (read: pretty darn good) at the moment with his new delivery. Correia’s K/9 and BB/9 are well below his career norms, and I don’t know if that’s due to an intentional adjustment or to randomness, but hopefully the decrease in strikeouts remains paired with a decrease in walks. McDonald needs to start figuring out how to pitch deeper into games, but right now he’s the only starter who can consistently miss bats, so he at least offers a nice change from the norm.

I certainly don’t expect the rotation’s success to continue in its current form, but perhaps with the return of Alvarez, Doumit, Jose Tabata and Steve Pearce, and the addition of a hitter before July 31, the offense can compensate some for the coming regression. That said, this staff has taken a step forward from last year’s performance, so there’s hope that some modest success can continue through the end of the season.

The Bullpen

I don’t think it was said here, but I felt strongly before the season started that Joel Hanrahan was the obvious choice for the closer role over Evan Meek, despite Meek’s excellent 2010 campaign. I say that not to pat myself on the back, but to point out that I had no idea he’d be as good as he’s been this year. Hanrahan’s been a little lucky on balls in play (.259 BABIP), but fluctuations there are not strange for relievers. Like others on the staff, he’s sacrificed both strikeouts (7.81 K/9 vs. 9.98 career K/9) and walks (1.79 BB/9 vs. 4.31 career BB/9), apparently in part for the sake of getting more ground balls (54.8% GB vs. 40.3% career GB rate).

Hanrahan has a nasty slider that was his best pitch last year (15.0 runs above average!), but he’s using it much more sparingly (15.3% vs. 29.8% career), and his fastball almost exclusively (84.7% vs. 67.0% career). He’s added velocity to the fastball so far this year (97.3 mph average), and it’s been worth almost 10 runs above average for him. Personally, I’d like to see him use the slider a little more as a strikeout pitch, but “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” He’s a deserving All-Star and can be legitimately considered one of the best relievers in the NL.

Here’s a look at this year’s bullpen:

	Games	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	FIP	xFIP	R/G
April	25	8.42	3.17	1.18	2.85	3.41	1.04
May	24	7.88	3.88	1.41	4.41	3.88	1.54
June	27	6.10	3.62	1.38	4.29	4.28	1.15
July	10	9.93	3.41	1.38	1.99	3.24	0.90
Overall	86	7.69	3.53	1.32	3.63	3.78	1.20

The thing is, the Pirates also have two other guys that aren’t far behind Hanrahan. Waiver claim of the century Chris Resop and free agent signing Jose Veras have been reliable and at times dominant this year. Resop has gone right after batters with the fastball (11.38 K/9) while cutting down on walks (3.79 BB/9). I can’t see any strong evidence for him being lucky, he’s just very good. The Veras experience has been a roller coaster at times, but he’s striking out more than a batter per inning, with less than half a walk in that same span. ZiPS thinks he’s due for some regression (.230 BABIP, 6.4% HR/FB), and it’s hard to disagree, but he should still end up with solid reliever numbers.

Daniel McCutchen has been used more frequently in medium and high leverage situations, and I’m a little concerned about that, because he’s been somewhat lucky and doesn’t strike enough batters out. Meek’s return from the DL should ensure that he isn’t used as much in tight spots. Joe Beimel is set to return soon as well, but I’m not particularly high on him, especially when I think Daniel Moskos could be just as effective if used in a LOOGY role, but Beimel could have decent trade value if he pitches well before 7/31. The gang of Tony Watson, Chris Leroux, Tim Wood, and Jose Ascanio are what they are, and Garrett Olson seems like a good option to either trade or fill in for someone who gets traded.

Summary

The pitching staff has been lucky, particularly in the rotation, but that shouldn’t cloud the actual improvement that’s taken place since last year. Team Neal should get credit for acquiring Correia, Karstens, Morton, McDonald, and essentially the entire bullpen at a very reasonable cost. Ray Searage and Jim Benedict should also get a significant amount of credit for the progress Morton and others have made. I don’t expect the current success for the pitching staff to continue in its present form, but it’s not unreasonable to think that they can be around 9th-12th in the league, which is a HUGE step forward when you think about where they’ve been the last two years in particular.

Later in the week we’ll look a the defense. Stay tuned.